March Madness: the science behind the brackets
March, 2025
The month of March is known for many things in the sports world, but by far the most popular is the NCAA Division 1 men’s basketball tournament, or March Madness, a thrilling 68-team tournament full of underdog stories and intense games of college basketball. According to the NCAA, the chance of filling out a perfect bracket is one in approximately 9.2 quintillion. Yet, despite these odds, millions of people fill out their brackets every year for fun, prizes, or glory, including PHS’s very own students.
“I love March Madness because of all the uncertainty. It’s [very] fun,” said Octavio Shank ’27.
Teams are seeded 1–16 in each of the regions. The bracket will play out until the championship is left with 4 region champions and then a grand champion. Every year, millions watch as small school winners from underfunded conferences come out of nowhere and win against much more seasoned teams, shocking the world and ruining bracket predictions. These unexpected wins are what put the madness in March Madness.
As an example, the Princeton Tigers won the Ivy League tournament in 2022 and were placed into the bracket as a #15 seed. The Tigers stunned everyone by defeating #2 Arizona then #7 Missouri, advancing to the round of 16 and breaking millions of brackets along the way.
“I remember my brother telling my mom, ‘Hey Mom, we might actually win this.’ We’re up by ten points with only two minutes to go ... the emotions at the end and the feeling of ‘oh my goodness we just won this insane, crazy game’ was so much fun,” said John Staples ’27, a fan that attended the Princeton vs Missouri game in Sacramento back in 2022.
March Madness is a thrilling, unpredictable college basketball tournament that, due to its unique structure and format, consistently produces games where smaller, lower-seeded teams defeat larger, higher-seeded powerhouses. Each year, these underdogs create history and ruin millions of brackets that attempt to predict it.
“The tournament is amazing. I think it’s a very fun tradition to do,” said Staples.